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Turnaround Picks -- and Pans -- of 2001

Arne Alsin

Editor's Note: Arne Alsin's column runs exclusively on RealMoney.com; this is a special free look at his column. For a free trial subscription to RealMoney.com, click here. This article was published Dec. 18 on RealMoney.

I can't hide at RealMoney.com. Readers are free to go to the list of commentators at the bottom left of the home page, click on my name and, right or wrong -- embarrassing or not -- review my complete record. All of my comments, positions and picks of past columns are available for your perusal.

In writing more than 80 columns in the past year for RealMoney, I've tried to follow my own set of rules:

1. Don't waffle. Give it to 'em straight.

2. Always question "conventional wisdom" (one of my favorite oxymorons, by the way).

3. Most of all, don't be boring!

I hope my cadre of columns has helped you successfully navigate the markets this year. I don't think the new market cycle is going to be any easier -- but for a jaded character like me, that's welcome, because it means I'll have a lot of fun. (Raging bull markets are dull.)

I've taken a look back at the 80-plus columns that I've penned. Here are my personal picks and pans.

Favorite Column

My favorite is a February column, Give Me an Edge -- Or I Won't Play, in which I laid out a philosophical framework for success in the markets, such as the need to have an identifiable, discernable edge.

Also in that column, I had the gumption to say that retailer Office Depot (ODP Quote) was a better company to own than tech heavyweight Oracle (ORCL Quote). A $10,000 investment in Oracle on that day would now be worth about $6,100, while a $10,000 investment in Office Depot would be worth about three times that, or $18,100.

Worst Column

My worst column has to be my May column, Time to Swoop In on Airline Stocks. I can sum up my thoughts on that piece easily enough with a three-letter word: ick.

Most Unconventional Wisdom Column

The mutual fund industry is hallowed ground that usually escapes scrutiny. John Bogle of Vanguard recently pointed out that most actively managed stock funds cost investors an average of 3% annually when all of the costs are added up. And what do investors get for their 3%? In the aggregate, nothing. Take a look at both of my mutual fund columns for a critique that is richly deserved. One was posted in June and the other in August.

Best Timing

The timing of my Sept. 24 column on the brokers was especially propitious. Since that column appeared, the six brokers that I listed as attractive are up 38%. The valuation analysis in that column, based on net cash and money management assets, was one of my better efforts for RealMoney.

Best Portfolio

Duh! The Top 10 Turnarounds for 2001, of course. That portfolio is up 54%.

Favorite Aphorism

It's from a column posted at the end of last year: "There are only two kinds of companies: companies that have problems and companies that are going to have problems." Here are a couple of candidates, by the way, for the latter: Tyco (TYC Quote) and General Electric (GE Quote). I offered up my thoughts on Tyco a month ago and on GE in late November.

Favorite Stock Pick

Some might think my favorite pick would be Office Depot -- which has seen a 138% rise -- a stock I pounded the table for in numerous columns. But I think J.C. Penney (JCP Quote), up 141% since my first mention, was a tougher call. While investors were distracted by the decline in the core department store business last December, they ignored other value, such as in the pharmacy chain Eckerd, large real estate holdings, the catalog business and the direct marketing business (since sold for $1.5 billion), among other things.

Worst Stock Pick

Kmart (KM Quote) is my worst stock pick. I generally buy companies that are No. 1 or No. 2 in their sector. I rationalized that Kmart was tied with Target (TGT Quote) for the No. 2 spot, which is true based on current revenue. But Target will obviously leave it in a cloud of dust soon enough.

Best Deal in Town

I like to read anything and everything on the financial markets as long as it's current (except for Wall Street analyst reports). Call me biased if you'd like, but RealMoney is the best deal in town, hands down. I hardly glance at financial magazines anymore; reading material planned for and written about a few months in advance of publication doesn't make a lot of sense to me, especially in the context of a volatile market like that of the past several months. Real time and online is where it's at.

Look for my upcoming column on turnaround stocks. I'll discuss a number of companies that nearly made my list of Top 10 Turnaround Candidates for 2002. Maybe you can spot a gem or two in the group.