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The Journal reported last week that Cardinal Health met earnings estimates in the December 2000 quarter and the September 2001 quarter by including gains from a legal settlement totaling $35.3 million. The settlement was parsed and allocated, $10 million to the December 2000 quarter, $12 million to the September 2001 quarter, with the balance recorded in the June 2002 quarter -- the quarter in which the settlement was actually reached. The company would have missed earnings estimates by 2 cents per share in both the December 2000 quarter and the September 2001 quarter, had the company not recorded the anticipated legal settlement gain as income. Cardinal says that this accounting treatment conformed with generally accepted accounting principles. I strongly disagree. A litigation settlement shouldn't be recorded as income when the settlement is still pending. The fact that Cardinal sliced up the anticipated gain and recorded it as income over a couple of nonconsecutive quarters -- quarters where they would have missed expectations without its inclusion -- is compelling evidence of earnings management. Cardinal has said that the accounting in this matter was appropriate because the litigation settlement was "virtually certain." Again, I disagree. As long as the settlement was pending, it shouldn't have been recorded as income. But even if Cardinal is right in recognizing contingent income, GAAP requires legal settlements like this to be separate from operating income because it is nonrecurring, unusual income. Instead, Cardinal tucked the funds into operating income, as a reduction of the cost of sales, during the December 2000 and September 2001 quarters, without disclosing it until the filing of the 10-K in September 2002. Interestingly, after the September 2001 quarter, the company began recording legal-settlement income as an unusual item, separate from operating income. The Overriding IssueWhile I think Cardinal's management violated GAAP, the bigger issue for investors goes to the intent. Simply put, if management isn't trustworthy, the company shouldn't be granted its current premium valuation. This $26 billion (market value) medical-products distributor and drug wholesaler sells at 18 times estimated current earnings of $3.19 (assuming you trust these earnings). Here are the three major areas of risk confronting Cardinal shareholders: Cardinal needs a rich stock price, because the company is an aggressive acquirer. Over $12 billion worth of companies have been acquired in recent years using Cardinal stock as currency. Acquisitions provide companies with the opportunity to create balance-sheet income via aggressive accounting. For an explanation of how this works, see my column Beware of Acquisition Accounting Games.
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Arne Alsin is the founder and principal of Alsin Capital Management, an Oregon-based investment advisor specializing in turnaround situations. At time of publication, neither Alsin nor ACM held a position in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Alsin appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to arne@alsincapital.com.
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