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Television commercials face a similar future, after a long and steady secular growth cycle on the back of the steady increase to the number of channels that you don't watch on cable. But TiVo (TIVO - commentary - Cramer's Take) and other digital video recorders have delivered the first shot across the bow, quickly gaining share and eliminating the need to watch commercials. Internet television on demand is next, and so too is the iShows model that will reflect the iTunes model that Apple has popularized. All those billions upon billions of dollars that for so long have been plowed into TV commercials will have to find new outlets for getting their messages out. Net companies such as Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Yahoo! (YHOO - commentary - Cramer's Take) will increasingly be getting a bigger piece of the advertising pie. None of this will happen overnight, and the broadcast commercial model is about to disappear anytime soon. But over the next five to 10 years, the shakeup will intensify. You want to make sure you're positioned on the team that will be taking share and not the team that will be losing it. I'll stick with companies like Google, Yahoo! and Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take), as they look positioned to be among the clearest winners thus far. I'm still not quite ready to chase XM and Sirius, but they also will be big winners in the future. I traded Sirius to the long side as it rose from about 80 cents to $2 back a couple years ago, but unfortunately I took my profits and moved on. Sirius has a better brand than XM at this point -- and better content -- but I'm leery of the dilutive nature of some of the deals they've put together to raise money over the past few years to capitalize themselves. XM is a cheaper way -- by market cap and a host of other metrics -- to play satellite radio, but I'd like to see it come down another 25% or so for me to feel like I've got some margin of safety in the stock. The brave new world is here. Hasta la vista, broadcast world.
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At time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner was long Google calls, Yahoo! common, Apple common and calls although positions can change at any time and without notice. Cody Willard is a partner in a buy-side firm and a contributor to TheStreet.com's RealMoney.
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