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RealMoney.com: The Teleconomist
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Tech Stocks Yield a Pained Disinterest

By Cody Willard
RealMoney.com Contributor

3/18/2005 3:05 PM EST
 
 Technology BULLISH
  • Tech stocks generate the worst reaction currently. None.
  • The hate they engendered last summer brought the bar low enough to create trading opportunities.
  • It's unclear what the current apathy will yield.

The opposite of love isn't hate, it's apathy. And the market is turning utterly apathetic toward tech again. Tech stocks of all stripes -- large, small, tech, telecom, semis and software -- have been quietly selling off for weeks, and that weakness has accelerated in recent days.



This week has seen the tech flu spread to stocks that had been acting healthy, such as Cisco Systems (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take), which is now back below $18 after looking like it was going to make a run for $20. Last summer, when the economy was undergoing that soft patch, we heard and read from all over that "tech is dead." Well, the calls that "tech is dead" are back once again, but there are two distinct differences between now, when I'm cautiously nibbling, and last summer, when I got so bullish.

The first difference is simply one of price. Tech stocks have been ugly lately, but it's not the bloodbath it was last summer. For example, Intel's (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) been acting terribly since it gave its midquarter update a couple weeks ago. In fact, the stock has hardly upticked. Likewise, the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH - commentary - Cramer's Take) has dropped nearly 7% in the last seven trading days, but pull up a chart on Intel and you'll see it's still a good 25% or so above where it was last September, and the SMH is still more than 15% above those levels it dropped to the last time the chorus rang out that "tech is dead."

The second issue is that nuance between apathy and hatred. Last summer, investors really seemed to hate tech. I'd write almost every day that all the tech stocks needed to do was meet estimates for the second half of the year and they would scream higher. When I'd write those things, I'd get blasted from all corners, especially from hedge fund managers who thought I was nuts to be getting longer. Now when I say and write that tech shouldn't be written off, I'm met with a collective sigh and shrug.

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As originally published, this story contained an error. Please see Corrections and Clarifications.

At time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner was long Cisco and Intel calls, short Intel, Cisco and SMH, although positions can change at any time and without notice.

Cody Willard is a partner in a buy-side firm and a contributor to TheStreet.com's RealMoney. He also produces a premium product for TheStreet.com called The Telecom Connection and is the founder of Teleconomics.com. The firm in which Willard is a partner may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, or buy or sell the securities, or derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned in his columns. None of the information in this column constitutes, or is intended to constitute, a recommendation by Willard of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination by Willard that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. Willard appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to cwillard@thestreet.com.

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