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RealMoney.com: The Swing Shift
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Four Horsemen of Tech Look Lame

By Alan Farley
RealMoney.com Contributor

9/13/2005 12:00 PM EDT
 
 Technical Analysis
  • The four horsemen of the tech revolution have underperformed throughout the three-year bull advance.
  • Intel, Dell, Cisco and Microsoft aren't helping the bulls' cause.
  • These 'blue-chips' have been gone nowhere; investors may want to consider the opportunity cost of staying in them.



Four blue-chip tech stocks ruled the roost in the 1990s. Analysts and advisers pounded the tables back then, telling every baby boomer to buy these leaders and hold them until retirement.

That was great advice for a few years, but things changed considerably after the bubble burst. These four horsemen of the tech revolution, Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take), Dell Computer (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take), Cisco Systems (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take) have underperformed the market throughout the three-year bull advance.

On Monday, I discussed why the tech sector is critical to the longevity of this rally. Today I'll look at price action in these blue-chips and see if they're helping or hurting the bulls' cause. Considering their high exposure to key indices, these stocks can mean the difference between life and death for this uptrend.

Dell Computer

I surfed the Dell Web site last week to look at laptops for my upcoming trip to Europe. Although I've never bought anything from this well-respected company, my opinion of its operation had always been a good one

That visit turned out to be more enlightening than expected. Dell's focus on cheap and cheaper computers is undermining its historic strengths and turning it into another Gateway (GTW - commentary - Cramer's Take), a PC retailer that sacrificed quality for competitive prices.

Dell has run on hard times in recent days. Most recently, the Street gave Dell's earnings outlook a thumbs down, sending the stock to its lowest level since last May. A longer-term view of the chart is even more disturbing. The stock has gone nowhere since the middle of 2003.

Although the stock bottomed after its postbubble decline well before the broad market, it's never really followed through on a brief 2001 recovery that brought it within 3 points of current levels. This is dismal performance indeed.

But Dell is so widely loved that its poor performance hasn't stopped analysts from finding the silver lining in every piece of bad news. Just last weekend, Barron's featured a story telling readers the current decline was yet another buying opportunity. Believe this nonsense at your own risk.

Cisco Systems

Cisco Systems is another 1990s powerhouse that's gone nowhere during this bull market. Like Dell, it now trades near the same price levels it did in 2001. And despite a few bursts of investor interest, price has gone absolutely nowhere for the last 14 months.

Go to NEXT PAGE


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Alan Farley is a professional trader and author of The Master Swing Trader. Farley also runs a Web site called HardRightEdge.com, an online resource for trading education, technical analysis and short-term investment strategies. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Farley appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email. Also, click here to sign up for Farley's premium subscription product The Daily Swing Trade brought to you exclusively by TheStreet.com.

TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.

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