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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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The Correction Is Here

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

5/14/2009 5:02 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
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First of all it looks like we found a new indicator that few, if any, use. I'm talking about the put/call ratio of the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, that we discussed here Tuesday. It is now four for four in its calls for the past 15 months. Let's hope no one else gloms on to this indicator so we can continue to find it useful.

But the big "news" is, as I posted in Columnist Conversation Wednesday, is that the indicators finally rolled over. We've discussed the McClellan Summation Index enough this week so I won't harp on it again. Let's just say that Nasdaq's definitely ticked down more and it will now take quite a rally to turn it back up.

The New York Stock Exchange only ticked down for the first time Wednesday. One super duper rally led by the financials could find it re-righting itself to up from down but I think the process has begun on that indicator as well.

The reason I believe the process has begun is that the 10-day moving average of the advance/decline line finally moved through the a/d line's 30-day moving average. I have discussed this indicator and its potential to cross several times over the past few weeks. It refused to cross and would instead simply kiss and that was that. But Wednesday's action found it crossing.

As a reminder, when we get these crosses, we tend to get a move in the market that lasts abut three to six weeks. But it doesn't mean we go in a straight line; rarely do we go in a straight line.

In early January we saw a crossing to the downside. About a week or so later we had a pretty strong rally post the presidential inauguration. It turned out to be a resting place before we lurched even lower.

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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in any stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.



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