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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Return to Upside Bias

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

9/17/2008 9:00 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
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Everyone is dying to know if that was the low. Once again, I will answer the way I have answered that question time and again in this past year of crisis: It was a low. And it can very well be retested and broken again.

I will repeat what I said here Tuesday. As for sentiment, we have the following in place:

  1. A jumpy VIX.
  2. The ISE call/put ratio under 100. In fact, it hasn't had a reading over 110 in eight trading days now.
  3. The equity put/call ratio was once again high with a reading of 93%. This might be the first time we've rallied and it stayed high.
  4. Explosive volume.
  5. My mother called.
As for the indicators, we had a massive increase in new lows. But -- and this is key -- we still haven't broken that 1,305 reading from July 15, and this time we did break 1200 on the S&P with vigor. In fact, if we use common stocks only, there were only 211 new lows vs. 348 back in July. That is a positive divergence.

The NYSE oscillator is moderately oversold. It can easily get more oversold. Nasdaq is oversold. I've discussed the oversold nature of Nasdaq that would appear this week for several days now, and that hasn't changed at all.

What I still cannot reconcile is the 30-day moving average of the advance/decline line not being oversold. I can't make it oversold, and it isn't. Can we rally without it being oversold? Sure. But the likelihood is that there will have to be more work done on the downside. I don't know whether that will come in the next few days or the next few weeks, but I suspect it means that the AIG (AIG - commentary - Cramer's Take) crisis has seemingly been ironed out and we'll probably end up with another round of rumors or another crisis in the next few weeks ... or something else that will spook the market.

For now, however, the majority of the decline is behind us and unless sentiment turns giddy quickly, we should have an upside bias in the market for a while.

If the rally is statistically weak, I will scoff. I will watch very closely the ratio of the Bank Index to the S&P 500. If that doesn't make a higher high on this news, I will become concerned again. But considering sentiment has finally fallen into place and we got our "whoosh" and positive divergence in new lows, I'll go with it. But we'll keep a close eye on sentiment and statistics since all the indicators didn't line up well this time around.








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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.



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