The index put/call ratio on the CBOE was an extremely low 96%. The last time it was in the 90s was July 25; the next day, the Nasdaq lost 46 points.

I suppose it's possible they are dead right on this market. And then the folks who play options over at the ISE would be dead right as well. But it would be a first for them in quite some time.

Over on the ISE, the total call/put ratio was 162%. We've had two other readings like this recently. June 25, which (as we discussed in yesterday's column) led to a day where Nasdaq lost nearly 80 points on the session. Prior to that was all the way back on Dec. 28 -- the next six trading sessions saw Nasdaq lose more than 200 points.

Perhaps times are different. Perhaps the fact that I have now seen more studies on the month of September being down than I care to tell you means that folks are really and truly bearish ... but if they are so bearish, why are they playing options as though they were bullish?

I have been harping away about Nasdaq for weeks now -- I know it seems like months, but it's only been about three weeks! -- and how I expect it to underperform going forward. So it comes as no surprise to me that Dell (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take) disappointed last night and was down more than 10% after hours. And I would note that Dell's chart wasn't so awful ... the only thing it did wrong was stop going up!

So how do I reconcile my view that Nasdaq will be the laggard here with the fact that I still believe us to be oversold? If we add to that the fact that these put/call ratios do not support a big zooming move up next week either ... I do not know.

I can speculate that we'll get a down day today based on the Dell news, and that we'll be rallying again by Tuesday. Keep in mind that that these options ratios generally speaking are for only a one- or two-day call, not an extended move.

To get an extended move, we'd need to see the 30-day moving average of the equity put/call ratio halt its decline and head upward -- that has still not happened. To get an extended move, we'd need to see the 21-day moving average of the ISE call/put ratio peak and head downward. That, too, has not yet happened.

It is not so easy to tell when these will turn, but I will keep you posted. I expect we could see a turn in them around the second week in September. That would be in keeping with the discussion I've been having here about how once my intermediate-term indicators roll over, it generally takes a few more weeks before it shows in the market.

So for now, I'll stick with looking for one or two down days followed by another rally.

For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.