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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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We're at a Critical Juncture

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

3/28/2008 8:20 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
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I do believe I top-ticked the market with my positive comments on breadth yesterday in Columnist Conversation!

However, in breadth's (and my own!) defense, once again breadth was not as bad as it has been on such down days. Just take March 17, a day the S&P was down 11 on the day. The net differential between advancers and decliners on that day was a net -2,069.

Compare that to yesterday's late-afternoon drubbing, where the S&P lost 15 and the net differential was -774, or a bit less than one-third of March 17's poor showing.

What I continue to find disturbing about the market is volume. It remains light. Volume is fuel for a market and without it, the market isn't going anywhere special.

Volume did increase somewhat during yesterday's decline, but it still wasn't at the levels seen a week ago. If we look at upside volume as a percentage of total volume, it too has lagged.

On the sentiment side of the ledger, I opined on Tuesday when the put/call raito had sunk like a stone that I thought we would see a conversion from bears to bulls very quickly. The American Association of Individual Investors reported the results of its weekly survey yesterday, and bulls surged to 41.60% from 20% just two weeks ago. I'm certain there will be those who tell us that a new bull market shows a quick conversion rate, but I would counter that a doubling of bulls in two weeks when all the market has done is lift off its lows is quite a conversion!

We may never see this particular indicator get back over 50% based on the action after Monday of this week, especially since I'd note that the put/call ratio zoomed right back up yesterday.

Anecdotally I did notice that after the market started to slide, there was no one out there calling for a bottom the way they have every other day this week. Late-day slides have a way of putting the bottom-callers on hold.

One of the most interesting aspects of the market right now has to do with the 50-day moving average lines. We are hovering at or near them in almost all the major indices. Forget for a minute that we are at or near them, and count back 50 trading days. Fifty trading days ago was Jan. 15. Over the week following that date, the market went into that January plunge. That means for the next week or so, we'll be "dropping" that final whoosh down in January from the 50-day moving averages.

If we don't trade lower than the January lows in the next week, then those moving average lines could actually stop falling.

I have been discussing various indicators in the market that keep the window open for a rally, and that is another one -- if the market can rally in the next week, it could get that moving average headed upward.

A word of caution. Milling around (i.e., going nowhere) will simply do what we've seen occur during other rallies we've had since October: use up the time that the window is open. Once the time is used up, we head back down again as the trend in place continues.

So we continue to watch the bank index relative to the S&P (see yesterday's column). We will watch the price action in the major indices in the next week for signs of movement in the 50-day moving averages. We will watch volume.

The banks must start to hold relative to the S&P. The indices must halt this slide in the next few days. And volume must rise on rallies. I think that's a lot to ask of a market that has acted so poorly on a consistent basis, but I'll keep an open mind.

Overbought/Oversold Oscillators

For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.








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Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.



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