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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Russell 2000 Warns of a Top Again
Page 2

 
On Tuesday, it popped up to a marginally lower high and sold off again before climbing to a higher high of 705.99 and that was it, topping just .27 above its gap. Now this morning, it gapped down from that same level and has pulled back 10 points from Tuesday's highs. So that's another gap for us to keep an eye on, that will get filled, that could mark another top.

This ain't rocket science, folks. It's just a matter of paying attention to these numbers on the daily charts. The Russell 2000 warned for two days of a top at the 705-706 level. And now that index and the entire market have sold off following the filling of that gap.

Russell 2000
Calling another top as another gap is filled
Click here for larger image.

Of course it's never just one index or chart. And usually, the S&P finds its way into the mix.

This move up from last week's double-bottom low (on the continuation charts) was no exception. Here, as well, there was a very visible gap from 1354.70 to 1365.80 in the now-expired March contract beckoning. Monday's 1361 high was near the gap's midpoint, and that's as close as it would get.

Tuesday's lower high produced a bearish non-confirmation with the Nasdaq, which also signaled that some kind of pullback was near, which was another reason to sell into Tuesday's muted advance and look for the pullback, which I did, especially in the S&P.

The bigger picture is that there is much to like about the pattern in the S&P, not the least of which is last week's bullish island reversal pattern. Note that the selloff into last Thursday's lows held narrowly above that reversal. That was another sign that the rally might carry, which it has done.

S&P Futures
A double bottom and Island Reversal marking the low
Click here for larger image.

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At the time of publication, Schiller was long SPX, Russell 2000, NDX, Dow and Financial Services mutual funds up to 35% levels, with lots of cash on the sidelines, although holdings can change at any time.

Dr. Harry Schiller is a Registered Investment Advisor with the California Dept. of Corporations. He holds a Series 7 General Securities license as well as a Series 4 Options Principal license. He has been owner and editor of the Short Term Consensus Hotline since 1988. For more information, see www.harryschiller.com. Under no circumstances does the information in this commentary represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.




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