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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Getting a Bit Stretched

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

3/25/2008 8:04 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
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Was yesterday the day before July Fourth? Or the day after Thanksgiving? I ask because volume was so light I was sure my calendar was wrong!

Volume on the NYSE was the lightest in two weeks. If this is a brand-new bull market, then why is volume so light?

And I do keep getting asked the question of whether this is a bear-market rally or a new bull market. I have no idea. As I've said before, I never know if it's a low or the low -- and I will not know until well after the fact -- so I'm not going to start trying to play that game now. All I know is that we had a low.

For weeks now I have been discussing the put/call ratios and how high they have been. We haven't seen a put/call ratio under 100% in 18 trading days. It might be a record, of that I'm not sure, but I do know that it is extreme. On those two up-400 days in the DJIA we saw the ratio over 100%. Last Thursday we saw the ratio over 100%. Yesterday it not only went under 100%; it flew almost to the 70s as it chimed in at 82%.

It hasn't been at 82% since Feb. 1, the peak of the last rally off the January low.

The ISE equity call/put ratio soared as well. It was 194%. We haven't seen a reading that high since Dec. 31.

Now, before I get into a bearish frenzy over the lack of volume and the newfound exuberance in stocks, let me point out that the 10-day moving average of the put/call ratio is still falling, and that is actually bullish.

Let me point out that we're not yet maximum overbought. The McClellan Summation Indexes have finally halted their slides and are curling under (Nasdaq remains in much better shape than the NYSE, as I've discussed several times recently), which is supportive of the rally.

In keeping with my continued view that Nasdaq is in better shape than the NYSE, another positive statistic is the number of stocks making new highs on Nasdaq. That number reached the highest level since early January, when Nasdaq was trading nearly 200 points higher.

Also, upside volume as a percentage of total volume was "only" 80% on the NYSE (again, not a banner day), whereas on Nasdaq it was just shy of 90% with a reading of 89%.

Finally, there is the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P. It got down just a smidge under 170% not long ago (the last time I showed the chart) and it is now starting to move upward.

In sum, the window remains open for a rally, but I expect we're a bit overdone here and in need of a pullback toward the end of the week. I also expect we'll see the conversion from bearishness to bullishness happen quite quickly, so let's keep our eyes open for that.

Overbought/Oversold Oscillators

For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.








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Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.



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