But I think I know why folks aren't jumping in with both feet. I think I know what is keeping folks from buying here. It's what I call the Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) effect.

Back on Dec. 17, I wrote a column basically saying if you wanted a rally, we had to whack Google. I explained that as long as the loved stocks hung around, it meant folks had hope -- and hope is not a good market emotion. If we saw Google get whacked, we'd know that folks had finally panicked.

Over the course of the next two trading days, Google lost nearly 25 points and by the 20th, we were rallying the market.

But now it's a different story. You see, Google is what I often refer to as last year's winner, and more often than not, last year's winner is not this year's winner.

At the beginning of the year, I explained in my newsletter that I believe that the moniker of the Four Horsemen will become a thing of the past this year. One reason is my view on last year's winners.

Folks don't like it when their winners don't keep on winning. And that's what has happened to the Horsies -- they are not winning anymore. It doesn't mean they won't enjoy rallies, but they are not where the new money is flowing anymore.

I am certain everyone has this flat black trend line drawn in on the Google chart. It's so obvious ... how can they not? (I'll bet even the fundamentalists have it drawn on a secret chart they keep tucked away in a drawer under lock and key!)

But what about the fact that Google broke an uptrend line (red line) over a week ago? A break of $620 would only be confirmation of the trend that began after the first of the year.

But my point is that folks have become rather like Pavlov's dogs in that if they think the market is going to rally, they buy Google (or one of the other Horsies), yet we've had over the course of the past two days, on an intraday basis, a rally of 4% in the S&P and the Nasdaq, and yet these stocks have basically performed in line at best. This is the first clue that last year's winners are unlikely to be this year's winners.

Corrections are the market's way of changing leadership. The first half of 2007 belonged to the oil stocks; that's where all the action was. The Energy SPDR (XLE - commentary - Cramer's Take) began the year of 2007 at $54 and was at $74 by the July high. It still stands at $74 today. Sure, it rallied in the second half, but basically it got back what it lost in the summer correction.

Now look at that chart of Google again. It began last year around $500, and in September it was still around $500. But by then we'd had a 10% correction, and the market's leadership had changed from oils to tech.

Back in November I showed how the new mo-mo stock was Colgate (CL - commentary - Cramer's Take), and it has continued to perform admirably. I do think it's getting quite late in its run now, but the drug stocks that everyone scoffs at ("what if the Democrats take the White House?") seem to be about the only group building a base.

It's early; they are not even close to breaking out. In fact, they probably have several more swings back and forth before they can even manage a breakout, but the volume we've seen on this recent rise tells you where the money is flowing. Check out the Pharmaceutical HOLDRs (PPH - commentary - Cramer's Take) chart below:

The stock market is about looking to the future, not the past. We focus on future earnings, future growth, future products, and we often don't even care about a current quarter's earnings report, instead focusing on what the company says about next quarter's prospects. So why should we look at who did well last year to determine who might do well this year?

Overbought/Oversold Oscillators

For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.