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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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NDX Post-Fed Reaction Dominated by Bears

By Chris Schumacher
RealMoney.com Contributor

12/14/2007 9:13 AM EST
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The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) disappointed expectations this week for the bulls to push the index back to 2175 before the Fed decision. Post-Fed reactions then were dominated by the bears, as distribution pressure increased sharply in the afternoon. The bears tried desperately to push the index back to the 2065 level that I outlined in Monday's column, but they came up just short. This level will be key, as I discuss below, with regard to any further upside.

 


The index managed to bounce from the 2070-2075 range to the 2094 close Thursday. Futures are slightly lower this morning as I write this, but the CPI data coming out at 8:30 a.m. could change that dramatically in light of the higher-than-expected inflation reading at the wholesale level on Thursday.

Although I hated the reaction to the Fed decision on Tuesday, I was pleased that investors seemed to shrug off credit announcements in write-offs by UBS (UBS - commentary - Cramer's Take). This would be an example that investors are less concerned with the actual numbers from specific companies and are more focused on the broader economic readings.

This would shift the focus away from worries about how much more bad news is coming out and instead concentrate on how well economic readings are in aspects such as GDP, employment, inflation and consumer spending. I was hoping that the lifting of the veil on how bad the numbers would be would have happened in August, but we are where we are now because they waited until November. It is what it is, let's move on to 2008.

I'll be looking for a range resistance today of NDX 2100 to help with the upside parameter. The support is a little more difficult to ascertain today as the wider range support of 2065 held over the past two trading sessions. However, this is quite a wide range to follow on an intraday level, so I may just use the half-hour trading range to give an idea for early direction. It will depend on how the market reacts to the CPI data out at 8:30 a.m.

The line in the sand for both camps is a closing basis around 2065. To regain control of the intraday time frame, the bulls need to hold this level and push the index back above 2100. The bears need to close the index below 2065 to add distribution pressure probability to the month of December. The probability to see NDX 2175 by January has lowered, but as long as 2065 holds, I still have some hope that the bulls can muster a rally next week.








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At the time of publication, Schumacher had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Chris Schumacher is a financial trader, speaker, writer and co-author of Techniques of Tape Reading. While Schumacher cannot offer specific investment or trading advice, he appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.



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