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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Focus Moves to Profit-Taking

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

10/26/2007 10:03 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
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Have you noticed the Nasdaq's volume? Over 2 billion shares for three days now. Gosh, when the market was up every single day and Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) and friends added 10 bucks or more a day, we couldn't get that kind of volume, but a few hard down days and the players come out of the woodwork!

With that in mind, I'd like to take you back to a chart we haven't looked at in a week or so. It's the Nasdaq volume as a percentage of NYSE volume on a 10-day moving average.

You might recall that the last time we looked at this chart, I had said that if it turned down in conjunction with the McClellan Summation Index, it did not bode well for Nasdaq going forward.

It doesn't mean the Nasdaq can't rally some more (heck, with the Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take) news, it ought to be up today!), but it generally means we should be focusing on profit-taking into rallies.


In cases B and C, it took about a month before the Nasdaq started heading down, so as you can see it's not an automatic sell signal, but it surely doesn't speak of many gains to come, does it?

It's also been a while since we've discussed the equity put/call ratio's 30-day moving average. It never got down to 60%, but it did get to 61% and tick back up. The last two lows on this chart were rounding lows that took a while to form, but "Vs" are possible as well. The point is that this chart does not speak of us being early in the rally in the market.

Finally, I also keep the ISEE call/put ratio's 21-day moving average. The last two times it got over 140%, we were closer to the highs than the lows in the market as well.

In that period last year, which is pretty much where we are now, the Nasdaq basically went nowhere for two months as it peaked in November at 2460 and did not breach that level again until mid-January when it went into that blow-off phase just before the February crash-ette.

Since I'm sure there will be a ton of folks who will point to the fact that the fourth quarter is the best quarter of the year and how the market will stay up until year end, etc, I would point out that that could very well be. This chart shows that we did stay up through year end. Nasdaq went nowhere, but up it did stay.

In the short-term, the market is still oversold, and with the Fed and the end-of-the-month mark-ups next week, the bias is to the upside. But you can see from the action the past two days that we're doing an awful lot of not going down instead of simply going up.

Overbought/Oversold Oscillators

For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.








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This reactionary market is still weak, and further downside is likely.



At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.



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