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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Ag Sector Ready to Grow

By Mark Manning
RealMoney.com Contributor

10/26/2007 3:54 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Mark Manning
 
 Technical Analysis
  • Emerging-market growth is fueling both food consumption and production.
  • One way to trade the sector without buying specific companies is an agricultural ETF.
  • The chart setup for one agricultural ETF is currently showing a nice buy entry.

Readers know that I have written quite often about the commodity markets, and that the fundamentals of the group should continue to keep this bull market moving forward for quite some time. I often write about the strength in oil and gas companies, steels, metals and other raw materials.



One I haven't talked about much that could possibly be the next major mover in the commodity area is the agricultural sector. In fact, the famous commodity guru Jim Rogers says that the best bets now are in agricultural commodities rather than the metals. He says that "The world has consumed more food than it has produced for the past five years and that's the first time in recorded history that's happened," despite there being no worldwide drought for several years. With supply tight, a replay of the 1970s -- when, for example, sugar prices rose to 47 times their original cost over an eight-year period -- is conceivable if supply disruptions occur again.

That is quite a statement from a man who has spent his life traveling the world and studying the commodities markets. The fact that China and the emerging markets are consuming more natural resources and food supplies than the world can effectively produce could cause all of our natural resources to remain at historical lows for some time to come.

One example of this is another report that came out earlier this month from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It said that the "U.S. wheat stockpiles may shrink to the lowest level in 59 years due to robust demand for the grain following two years of weak harvests worldwide.

The USDA projects wheat supplies for the 2007-2008 crop year will fall to 307 million bushels, down 55 million bushels from its estimate last month, due to the fast pace of export shipments. Foreign appetite for the country's wheat has surged after poor weather damaged harvests around the world this year. Record high prices have done little to dampen demand.

With the prospects of this bull market continuing well into the future, I wanted to take a look at a few ways that investors might be able to take advantage of the situation.

The first way is to obviously be directly involved in the futures market of these commodities. However, that can very risky if you are not an expert or dealing with an expert in the field. The other ways would be to buy specific companies that are involved in the agriculture business, like Monsanto (MON - commentary - Cramer's Take), Bunge (BG - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Agrium (AGU - commentary - Cramer's Take).

The other way would be to use an exchange-traded fund that trades the commodities for you. The one I'm aware of that has been around for a while is the PowerShares DB Agricultural Fund (DBU - commentary - Cramer's Take). It has been trading since January of 2007.

The fund is based on the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index -- Optimum Yield Agriculture Excess Return™ (Index), which is composed of the futures contracts of a wide variety of agricultural commodities, such as corn, wheat and sugar. Let's take a look at its chart and see what the ETF is doing right now.

You can see that the shares were consolidating for several months before breaking out on heavy volume in late September. The price has since pulled back to the 50-day moving average, and now looks like it is ready to attempt another move higher.

Buying exchange-traded funds in lieu of participating in the futures or options markets does not completely limit your risk. Just like anything else, you need to protect yourself with protective sell stops underneath logical support areas. In this case, I would probably use the October low of $27.61.

Source: TC2000








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At time of publication, Manning had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Mark Manning, AAMS, is an Accredited Asset Management Specialist and Registered Investment Advisor with Butler, Wick & Co., where he specializes in wealth management. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Manning appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.



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