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Last Friday's trading session marked the end of the window-dressing potential, but the bears couldn't muster much distribution pressure past the break of the half-hour support. I was expecting the 2105 level to keep the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) capped and create pressure that would push the index back to the gap level just under 2080 from Tuesday to Wednesday.
This week puts us right back at the top of the order with economic data. The most important part of the week most likely comes with the employment data on Friday. You should note that the last two reports have prompted a decline in the Dow of 280 and 250 points, respectively. Given that October is a spooky period in the markets, and we have seen two previous reports create angst in the broader indices, I would be looking for profit-taking to occur before Friday's session. Friday's session should set the tone for October. If investors can get a better reaction to the employment data than we've seen in August and September, October could easily see new index highs. Should the angst remain, volatility probably caps upside movement in the indices and the markets end up nowhere. This would be great for traders, bad for investors. I'll be using the NDX 2075 to 2105 range for Monday through Wednesday's sessions. The half-hour low strategy on Friday offered a few points of downside profit when the support didn't hold, but it wasn't stellar. I'd like to see one more test of 2100 offer short exposure with a target of the gap level just under 2080. If the index moves under 2075 before Wednesday without first offering the move to 2100, then this strategy fails. Later in the week, I'll update my bias based on how the NDX trades ahead of the employment numbers.
At the time of publication, Schumacher had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time. Chris Schumacher is a financial trader, speaker, writer and co-author of Techniques of Tape Reading. While Schumacher cannot offer specific investment or trading advice, he appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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