It's Not Too Late for Gold

Today we're going to look at:

• Oracle (ORCL - commentary - Cramer's Take)
• Melco PBL (MPEL - commentary - Cramer's Take)
• streetTRACKS Gold ETF (GLD - commentary - Cramer's Take)
• United States Oil Fund (USO - commentary - Cramer's Take)
• Palm (PALM - commentary - Cramer's Take)

But first, today finally brings to a close one of the more exciting weeks I've seen in the market for quite a while. In a nutshell, nobody expected the Fed to do the unexpected. So when the Bernanke Boys announced the 50/50 haircut for the Fed funds target rate and discount rate, a lot of folks were caught leaning the wrong way.

To add insult to injury, we are dealing with a triple-witching week and a pending end-of-quarter rally.

Simply put, there are a lot of crosscurrents that are affecting the price action right now, and it's important to sift through the chaff to get to the wheat. There is just so much information available these days that it's easy to overload and succumb to analysis paralysis. If you want to avoid going down that path, try keeping two things in mind: time frame and source.

Here's what I mean.

If you have a clear concept of your trading time frame (days, weeks, months, years), then you can filter through the irrelevant information and get to the stuff that matters to you. If you've got a very short time frame, you'll be looking for different information than the long-term buy-and-hold investor.

This is important, because if the short-term environment is bullish but the longer-term prognosis is bearish, you'll be on the wrong side of the market if you listen to the big-picture stuff.

When you are considering the source of your information, consider this. Only liars and emperors with no clothes are experts at everything. When someone has an opinion about everything, ignore them. Trading is a tough business, with the best and brightest in the world waging war on the battlefield every day, trying to take each other's money. In that environment, do you really think some generalist who likes to hear himself talk will give you an edge at all?

Memo to you: "No." Instead, use specific resources for specific insight. Don't get lazy and listen to the guy who has a lot to say about a lot of things. Choose your sources wisely.

OK, let's get to some reader requests.

This weekly chart of the streetTRACKS Gold ETF shows how it has broken above established resistance on heavy volume. In light of the prolonged congestion, I don't believe it's too late to buy. While I've got a stop back below the breakout level, I believe this is one that is due for a sustained advance.

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Oracle announced pretty solid earnings Thursday, and the stock was trading higher after the close. This daily chart gives us a good perspective on the action. The last time ORCL tested $21, the bulls couldn't get it done. The advance failed at that level. This time might be different. If the stock closes above $21 today, we could see prior resistance transition to current support. So I'd keep a stop back below the breakout level.

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Melco PBL was chopped in half between April and August, but the stock recently moved back to resistance at $14. The high-volume breakout above $14 put the stock back at a level that it hadn't seen since May.

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Next thing you know, old Jed's a millionaire ... unless that million is denominated in dollars! This weekly chart of the U.S. Oil Fund shows how oil has been moving inversely to the dollar -- which makes sense, because oil trades in dollars. So as the dollar falls to levels not seen since 1992, it takes more of 'em to buy oil. But this weekly chart shows oil at the top of an ascending channel. My bet is that oil goes much higher than present levels, but I'd still wait for a pullback to a more reasonable entry.

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Palm has been going through a rough patch over the past several months. But since the August low, this stock has run up 20%. Here's the issue I see with Palm: The stock has repeatedly failed to push above $16 over the past month or so. Until that dynamic changes, I'd stay on the sidelines. And if the stock pulls back to $15, I'd sell. The Treo may be cool -- but that whole BlackBerry vs. iPhone thing makes the Treo the red-headed stepchild of this industry.

Be careful out there.

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At the time of publication, Fitzpatrick had no positions in the stocks mentioned, though positions may change at any time.

Dan Fitzpatrick is the publisher of StockMarketMentor.com, an advisory newsletter and educational forum dedicated to teaching effective risk management and trading methodologies to aspiring traders and investors. He is a former hedge fund manager and a member of the Market Technicians Association, and he now trades from his home in San Diego, Calif. While Fitzpatrick holds various securities licenses, he does not give recommendations to buy or sell stocks. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. He appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.