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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Expect a Fight Around 2000 on the Nasdaq 100

By Chris Schumacher
RealMoney.com Contributor

9/21/2007 9:28 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Chris Schumacher
 

My expectations this week -- that after a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, the Nasdaq 100 would most likely sell off due to uncertainty -- were the complete opposite of what occurred.



This exact scenario is why I normally don't put on positions ahead of news events such as earnings, Fed decisions or other economic news. Not only could I be wrong about the actual expectations, but how the market reacts to that news would be just as contrary to my opinions. I prefer to trade around the strategies geared toward technical formations to alleviate having to guess what the news will be and how the markets will react.

Given the complete wrongness of my expectations for this week, I am certainly not going to try to continue building positions on a quadruple-witching Friday. Instead, I'll come back Monday with a fresh view of the index for next week.

Technically, we are seeing a news-driven event spike the index right back to the former resistance level from July. This type of exhaustion from a news-driven event normally brings out profit-taking, especially with resistance just overhead. This should help to push the index back under 2000 in the near term.

A push back under 2000 would be a relief to the bears that were caught on the wrong side of the strength we saw Tuesday and Wednesday. They most likely would use that weakness to take off some of the positions that moved outside their risk parameters. A fight between bears and bulls near 2000 could keep the index locked around that level.

But Friday's trading behavior will be dictated more by quadruple-witching than by technicals. I'll look for the gap just under 2000 to fill over the next several sessions as the post-Fed market strength succumbs to distribution pressure. If the index closes back above 2050 before moving under NDX 2000, then this bias is incorrect.









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At the time of publication, Schumacher had no positions in any of the instruments discussed in this column, although holdings can change at any time.

Chris Schumacher is a financial trader, speaker, writer and co-author of Techniques of Tape Reading. While Schumacher cannot offer specific investment or trading advice, he appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.



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