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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Nothing Bullish About Monday's Action

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

5/15/2007 9:10 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
 Technical Analysis
  • The market is not yet oversold.
  • The BKX//S&P ratio broke to a lower low.
  • The oil rally has been pathetic.

As hard as I might try, I simply can't come up with anything bullish to say about yesterday's action.



That's because two charts changed drastically yesterday, and I can't get them out of my head. The charts are both ratios.

The first is the Nasdaq Composite relative to the S&P 500.

I have shown this chart several times lately, most recently on Friday morning. As you can see on the chart, it finally broke 1.70.

Now, there's nothing magical about 1.70. But take a look at the three circles on the chart. The right-hand circle is now. The other two circles represent other points in time when we'd been holding at a level for a while and then broke.

The left-hand circle is the summer of 2004, when the Nasdaq lost 300 points in six weeks. The middle circle is last May, when the Nasdaq lost 300 points in six weeks.

Let's not immediately jump to the conclusion that the Nasdaq will lose 300 points in six weeks. There are only two other data points, and this market hasn't been responding to all of the negative divergences lately.



However, the market is not yet oversold. It has fewer new highs and another worrisome ratio. The bank index relative to the S&P 500 just broke down to a lower low.



You might need a magnifying glass to see that break, but it's there. This represents the first time since 2002 that the ratio has broken this level. My other notation on the chart is an arrow. That represents the fall of 1999, when this ratio also fell to a lower low and broke down. As you know, from that point forward, the Nasdaq enjoyed three to six more months of upside.

The difference today is that the Nasdaq is not soaring. Instead, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, made up of just 30 stocks, is powering ahead.

Just in case you think oil will save the day, its expected rally has been pathetic. It pooped out yesterday at $63. So it has rallied just about $2, yet has done so lethargically. A break of $60.50 would definitely spoil the crude oil party.



In a normal market, these issues would manifest themselves on the downside, but this is not a normal market. After all, market breadth was 2:1 negative, the S&P 500 lost two points on the day and people didn't jump in to buy puts. The CBOE put/call ratio did not rise yesterday as it usually does on a down day.

In fact, the ISE call/put ratio went to 159% yesterday. From the lows in March through the end of April, the ratio went above 150% on only two days. In the past week, it has gone over 150% three times. That makes me think folks are banking on a rally to follow the down day. Have people gotten into a pattern of expecting every down day to be followed by an up day?

I'd say it's more bullish if they expect the decline to continue.

Overbought/Oversold Oscillators

For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.












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Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.



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