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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Still Predicting a Short-Term Peak

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

4/17/2007 8:47 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
 Technical Analysis
  • Keep an eye on the financials here.
  • The put/call ratio fell once again.
  • Watch the TLT's reaction to CPI data.



As long as the financials remained in the doghouse, people had a reason to dislike the market. After all, how many times have you heard someone tell you to keep an eye on this group?

Even I have shown a chart of the bank index (BKX) relative to the S&P 500 to give you an idea of how important the financials are to the market.

When we last looked at that chart, we were on the verge of breaking down. I suppose we technically did break down, but we need to give some leeway when the time span is so long.



It will be disconcerting if we can't recapture those previous lows in the next few days. In that case, this rally in the financials would become a failing one.

If you think I'm being unduly harsh, then I'd remind you of Friday afternoon, when Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take) got everyone excited and the stock surged upward, taking the Nasdaq with it. Yesterday, Cisco had no participation and was down on the day. A lack of follow-through in the banks will turn this ratio south again.

Therefore, is it any surprise that if the financials rally, then folks can check that worry off their lists? And they checked it off yesterday. I know this because once again the put/call ratio fell. The equity put/call ratio chimed in at 52%, a reading not seen since the final days of December and the early days of January. Shortly thereafter, the S&P 500 lost about 30 points in a week.

Sentiment really does shift when the financials rally. Can you imagine the weight that will be lifted off the market if the semiconductors can rally Tuesday? Then people would have nothing to complain about! However, if that does occur, it would happen just as the 30-day moving average of the advance/decline line is reaching an overbought reading.

The number of stocks making new highs soared yesterday, but they still fell short of the previous peak reading. So now we have a real negative divergence, as the number of common stocks making new highs on the New York Stock Exchange was 176, compared to 210 in February.

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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.



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