But keep in mind that last week was the first week of a new year, with the attendant increased volatility and liquidity as traders reposition. Call that phenomenon what you will -- Santa effect, January effect, window-dressing -- but it all adds up to an attempt to put some sense of predictability around an unpredictable animal. I prefer to stick with putting price-volume relationships around what is happening now to trying to explain why something has already occurred.

This week, it's been straight up to new highs for the Nasdaq 100. The five- and 30-minute range setups did well on Monday and Tuesday. But as I mentioned in Monday's column, any break of the 1805 level would make fading the 30-minute range likely to offer losses.

Thursday's break of 1805 allowed for a strong run to the high side. On the chart, you can see the 1805 level creating a congestion range that day. When that congestion finally broke, it pushed the index markedly higher. Fading any strength over the past two days would have yielded losses, as expected.

The range to work with Friday will be the congestion that formed between NDX 1830 and 1840 through most of Thursday. Normally, I'd expect that after a strong run from 1790 to 1840, the index would consolidate those gains and potentially pull back as profits are taken before the long weekend. This would most likely yield a move back to at least 1805 by the close. Should the NDX hold the 1825 level for the first half hour of the trading session, it has a higher probability of retesting the 1840 resistance and shooting even higher.

Therefore, for the Friday session, the 1825 level is key. If this holds, I'd expect that a move back to 1840 could offer profits for at least a portion of long exposure. If the NDX can break 1845, holding the remaining portion should reward well toward the middle of the afternoon. If 1825 fails to hold, I would expect a move back to the 1805 congestion range, where any short exposure can be taken.