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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Another Disappointment for Bottom-Fishers in Oil

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

1/12/2007 8:52 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
 Technical Analysis
  • Earnings in the oil sector are coming down.
  • The number of new highs remains pathetic.
  • Thursday's put/call ratio was the lowest since Dec. 14.

Now wasn't that a great rally? Everyone loved it except the folks who keep bottom-fishing the oils.



Remember way back in 2000-02, when tech went from hot to not so hot? Do you remember how many times people wanted to bottom-fish the tech stocks? Do you remember how disappointed they were, over and over again? If this sounds familiar, it's because that's what keeps happening in the oil stocks.

Oh yes, their day will come. They'll eventually get a rally that sticks for longer than a few hours. Tech had several of those rallies in 2001 and 2002. But it will probably come when everyone stops looking for it or when people have to start wearing their winter coats again. According to the latest weather forecast, the cold weather is coming for many parts of the U.S.

I am not a fundamentalist by any stretch of the imagination, but I recall one bearish argument about S&P earnings estimates, which are used by all the Wall Street strategists: If you excluded oil stocks, earnings wouldn't be so hot.

Amid all this carnage in the commodity, no one seems to have noticed the slew of earnings preannouncements among oil companies, including Chevron (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take), Nabors (NBR - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Hornbeck Offshore (HOS - commentary - Cramer's Take).

If all of these earnings in the oil sector are coming down and this group has been responsible for so much of the earnings growth in the S&P, then won't some of these strategists make adjustments to their S&P earnings? That's just some food for thought.

As for the overall market yesterday, it won't come as a surprise to anyone that the number of stocks making new highs was pathetic once again.

Someone asked me what I thought of the breakout in the Nasdaq. Well, let's take a look at the Nasdaq breakout that occurred last spring. In late March to early April, the Nasdaq broke out of the consolidation in which it had been since January.

Now take a look at the number of stocks making new highs.

You might have to squint to see it, but that breakout from the consolidation last spring produced fewer new highs than there were in January. It was a negative divergence. And at least that particular breakout had a surge in the number of stocks making new highs.

Compare that to this breakout. Heck, at least give us 240 stocks at new highs so we can have a real divergence. But 127 new highs? Gosh, I'm not sure what to say about how pathetic this statistic is.

My inbox has lately contained several questions about why this matters. Think of the averages as the generals and the stocks as the troops. If the troops don't follow the general, the likelihood of winning the battle is not high.

Is there any timing to it? No, not really. It is simply a sign of deterioration.

And it doesn't help that yesterday's put/call ratio was the lowest since Dec. 14. If you need a refresher, on Dec. 15, we had a great CPI report, which gapped us up and then took us right back down.

Overbought/Oversold Oscillators

For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.








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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.

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