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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Caution Ahead for Chemical Stocks

By Jack Steiman
RealMoney.com Contributor

1/8/2007 7:17 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Jack Steiman
 
 Chemicals BEARISH
  • The chemicals index has had a negative divergence.
  • That doesn't mean the group won't head higher eventually.
  • It does signal that some selling may be in store.

When you think about what's hot in the market, what comes to mind first?



Most likely, you think of tech and the high beta that goes with it. It's sexy to be in those plays when the market is rising because they move fast and furious on a wild ride higher.

Or maybe you think of some non-Nasdaq superstars with high prices and high betas. For instance, some recent darlings include Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Bear Stearns (BSC - commentary - Cramer's Take).

All of these examples make sense, and if you have been long these stocks over the past six months, you're feeling pretty good about things. However, it would probably shock you to know that the chemical sector has been every bit as strong as these highfliers.

If you were one of the lucky investors who rode the chemical group higher, it's time to pay attention to the near-term signal that is saying, "Slow down." Let's understand why.

As you can see from the chart below, the Dow Jones U.S. Chemicals Index raced up a little more than 20% in only six months. (Some components of this index include Air Products (APD - commentary - Cramer's Take), DuPont (DD - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Dow Chemical (DOW - commentary - Cramer's Take).) That's quite a move, and you can see that it basically never had any sustainable pullback. That's understandable, however, when you note that the MACD remained strong, making higher highs on the way up after even the smallest pullback.

Suddenly and without warning, it put in a double top in price at 237, but for the first time, the MACD refused to confirm the move. That's clearly visible on the chart. Here's the red flag: After pulling back a bit, the index came back up and retested the top, but the MACD did not move up with price. That tells us to be extremely cautious here.


Taking a Breather
Here's a chart of the Dow Jones U.S. Chemicals Index
Click here for larger image.
Source: StockCharts.com

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At the time of publication, Steiman had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this column, although positions may change at any time.

Jack Steiman is president of TheInformedTrader.com, for which he also conducts live seminars, and Steiman New Research Group, LLC. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Steiman appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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