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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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The Higher We Go, the Harder We'll Fall

By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor

10/26/2006 8:53 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
 
 Technical Analysis
  • Many mega-caps remain extended.
  • Caution level is high for the S&P.
  • Small-caps are looking appealing.

Wednesday was choppy, as traders continued to wade through an onslaught of earnings reports and pondered an unsurprising FOMC interest rate decision. By the closing bell, the averages once again managed to tack on gains in seemingly routine fashion. It's now quite clear that we no longer have to worry about lower prices ever again. In a matter of months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 20,000, and the Nasdaq will blow through 5,000!



In all seriousness, while the bulls managed to frustrate the bears even more on Wednesday, I can't help but continue to express caution. The higher we go without a meaningful consolidation, the harder we will fall when selling kicks in.

While I remain cautious, I've been able to avail myself of some good trading opportunities. Just because I think the indices are extended doesn't mean that I can't take advantage of opportunities and trends that are present. For example, oil-related stocks followed through, and the metals, particularly gold stocks, perked up and look to be offering some excellent opportunities for those willing to take them.

The S&P and the Dow look to be walking the high wire, while the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 have been consolidating nicely and may be ripe for a breakout move to the upside. This would make sense, as many of the mega-caps remain extended and in much need of a rest. A rotation out of the big boys and into other less-extended areas, like small-caps, would not be a surprise.

With the bulls in full-blown rally mode, any bearish arguments are merely academic. At this point, the trend higher is firmly in place, and it is silly to fight it too hard. However, at some point, the negative arguments will matter. Comments that seem silly now will dominate the headlines as we daydream about the good old days, when we counted how far above 12,000 the Dow was.

At some point, the Dow and S&P will falter, and I'll be watching closely to see how the negativity manifests itself. Sometimes the negativity envelops everything, and other times, great pockets of bullish action persist. Time will tell, but for now, I'll continue to play what is in front of us, keeping my time frames short and leashes tight.

Let's go to the charts.

The Nasdaq added a few points Wednesday on a slight uptick in volume. The sideways action here has been a start, but I'd prefer to see this continue for a few more days. I'm watching support and resistance levels closely.

The S&P inched higher Wednesday on average volume and continues to look very extended and in need of consolidation. I will keep my caution level high until I see some basing action in this average.

Small-caps, as represented by the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM - commentary - Cramer's Take), outperformed Wednesday on a volume surge. The Russell didn't break out above the current pivot, but still looks much more attractive than the other averages. If this relative strength can continue, I suspect there may be some very solid trading opportunities under the surface.

>

Yesterday, I posted a chart of Schlumberger (SLB - commentary - Cramer's Take) to illustrate the bottoming action that was taking place in the oil sector. Schlumberger did what a stock that is bottoming is supposed to do and broke the downtrend line on heavy volume. That bodes well for future price appreciation.

As I mentioned earlier, as the mega-cap stocks become more extended, many small-cap stocks have been consolidating and are offering some very attractive setups. Perficient (PRFT - commentary - Cramer's Take) is one such chart that I would consider if small-caps begin to show increased relative strength.








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At the time of publication, De Porre was long Perficient, although holdings can change at any time.

James "Rev Shark" DePorre is the founder and CEO of Shark Asset Management, an SEC-registered investment advisory firm. He also operates sharkinvesting.com, an interactive online community that serves and educates active investors. DePorre holds business and law degrees from the University of Michigan, is a member of the Michigan Bar Association and a former tax attorney and CPA. He lives in Anna Maria Island, Fla., with his wife and two children.Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Rev Shark appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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