Dow 11,000? TA Says Top

If ever there was a good test of technical analysis, it has to be this week. And my number one exhibit? The chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average below.

It's a good test of:

A) resistance
B) the theory of overbought
C) the hurdle of round numbers.

Therefore, without any knowledge of P/E ratios, "fair value," the Federal Reserve or any other assorted topics favored by fundamental analysis, TA, or at least my interpretation thereof, says the odds don't favor a sustained breakthrough of 11,000.

We've simply gone too far too fast to make and keep a breakout at these levels.

And laying it completely on the line, my guess is that within a few months the Dow is a lot lower than it is now.

How much lower? I'll talk about that tomorrow.

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Today, the Nasdaq, Zumiez (ZUMZ - commentary - Cramer's Take), F5 Networks (FFIV - commentary - Cramer's Take), Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take), Beazer Homes (BZH - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Potash (POT - commentary - Cramer's Take).

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Charts produced by TC2000, which is a registered trademark of Worden Brothers Inc.

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And that is the final word from Westport, Conn., where one movie rental to avoid is Bewitched. My tolerance for lousy is pretty high, but everyone in my family had one assessment for this flick: dreadful.

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Gary B. Smith is a freelance writer who trades for his own account from his Maryland home using technical analysis. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Smith writes a daily technical analysis column for RealMoney.com and also produces a daily premium product for TheStreet.com called The Chartman's Top Stocks -- click here for a free two-week trial. While Gary cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.