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Party Like It's 1999 -- in 2016?

By Gary B. Smith
RealMoney.com Contributor

5/18/2005 8:15 AM EDT
 
 Technical Analysis
  • If history repeats itself, 2016 could be the start of another 800% climb in the Dow.
  • Good news or bad, Microsoft keeps moving up, good reason to stay long until a close here.
  • Plus, the NYSE, Annaly, Regis, Polycom, Dow Jones and a poll.



A reader emailed me recently, asking me to reprise a theme I've been on for a few years now. Namely, while we may see swings up and down, we have a very good chance of seeing absolutely no net change in the Dow since the highs of 1999 (if history repeats!).

My basis for that thinking is the following chart, in which we see that after the 800% rise post-WWII, there was a lengthy 17-year consolidation. Subsequent to that consolidation, there was yet another 800% rise.

And since then? So far, it's six years and counting. Could we really be only one-third of the way through? It wouldn't surprise me in the least!



Today, the NYSE Composite Index, Annaly Mortgage Management (NLY - commentary - Cramer's Take), Regis (RGS - commentary - Cramer's Take), Polycom (PLCM - commentary - Cramer's Take), Dow Jones & Co. (DJ - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take).








Charts produced by TC2000, which is a registered trademark of Worden Brothers Inc.


And that is the final word from blogspot.com, where readers already know my take on blogs: total nonsense. Others like Cody Willard, of course, disagree, but I think he's in the vast minority. Still, what do I know?


What's Your Take on Blogs?

My thoughts need to be heard. Therefore, I blog.
I'm a reader, not a writer. Blogs are a daily part of my life.
Like reading someone else's boring diary.
View the results without voting







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Gary B. Smith is a freelance writer who trades for his own account from his Maryland home using technical analysis. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Smith writes a daily technical analysis column for RealMoney.com and also produces a daily premium product for TheStreet.com called The Chartman's Top Stocks -- click here for a free two-week trial. While Gary cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your feedback.

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