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RealMoney.com: TSC Technical Forum
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Caution in the Gold Mine

By Gary B. Smith
RealMoney.com Contributor

2/6/2003 8:23 AM EST
 



There's been a lot of talk lately about how gold is the only place to be right now. Frankly, I've been bullish on many of the gold stocks, but after looking the charts Wednesday, I'm not sure that now is the time to buy.

For example, you can see clear resistance on Newmont Mining's (NEM - commentary - Cramer's Take) chart. Normally, my advice is to wait for a close above that resistance before buying. That still holds true.



But it's a bit unsettling how quickly Newmont reversed Wednesday -- and on very high volume. This is true no matter which gold stock you looked at: Barrick Gold (ABX - commentary - Cramer's Take), Glamis Gold (GLG - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Anglogold (AU - commentary - Cramer's Take) were all below a previous high, and all reversed on the highest volume the stock had seen for months.

Of course, we could see yet another flip back to the upside, so maybe this is only a temporary retreat. Regardless, it is a warning sign that buying now may be a bit too early.

Today, the Dow, SanDisk (SNDK - commentary - Cramer's Take), Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take), HCA (HCA - commentary - Cramer's Take), the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor index, or SOX, CVS (CVS - commentary - Cramer's Take) and EMC (EMC - commentary - Cramer's Take).









Charts produced by TC2000, which is a registered trademark of Worden Brothers Inc.


And that is the final word from Mickey Mantle's Pub, where the world may be in upheaval, but the sports pages are full of great stories: U.S. skiing back on track, Marion Jones involved with a controversial coach, the trials of Lebron James, Tiger finally has an adversary in Els ... for a sports fan, it doesn't get much better than this.






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Gary B. Smith is a freelance writer who trades for his own account from his Maryland home using technical analysis. At time of publication, he held no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Smith writes a daily technical analysis column for RealMoney.com and produces a daily premium product for TheStreet.com called The Chartman's Top Stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your feedback to Gary B. Smith.
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