Edging closer to the Fed's decision on interest rates, rate hike odds are little-changed. The market is priced for only fractional odds of an interest rate hike at today's meeting, and 34% odds of a hike at the Sept. 16 FOMC meting.
For the Oct. 29 FOMC meeting, the market is priced for 62% odds of a cumulative 25 basis points in hikes. For the end of 2008, the market is priced for a 2.27% funds rate, well below the peak of 2.86% in June.
Looking further out, the market is priced for the funds rate to be at 2.55% at the end of the first quarter of 2009 and between 3.25% and 3.50% by the end of 2009.
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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Tony Crescenzi Blog ISM and Service Spending a Bad Combo 8/5/2008 11:38 AM EDT The potential impact to jobless claims could be a significant one.
Tony Crescenzi Blog The Fed's Big Chance 8/5/2008 10:56 AM EDT It should employ a strategy of "opportunistic disinflation."
Tony Crescenzi Blog Bank Failure Watch 8/4/2008 1:53 PM EDT The eighth bank failure of the year was reported on Friday.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of the revised investment classic, The Money Market,
first published in 1978 by Marcia Stigum, and The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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