Jobless claims fell back to familiar territory, falling 19k to 318k,
equaling the one-year average. The consensus forecast was for a reading of
330k. Jobless claims have been elevated in recent weeks, as indicated by
the four-week moving average, which increased slightly in the latest week, to
325,750, the highest reading in four months.
In addition, the amount of people receiving jobless benefits on a continuous basis also reached a four-month high, increasing 25k to 2.598 million. These increases suggest caution in concluding that the recent jump in claims might have been related to problems in adjusting for both the seasonal shutdown of the automobile sector, as well as school calendars (jobless claims were very low in July, but very high in August).
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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Tony Crescenzi Blog Beige Book Less Sanguine 9/5/2007 3:16 PM EDT The District Banks described growth in terms of 'moderate' all the way to 'slowed.'
Tony Crescenzi Blog Rate Cut Odds Hard to Gauge 9/5/2007 12:25 PM EDT A variety of factors are distorting trading in fed funds futures and the funds rate is all over the map.
Tony Crescenzi Blog LIBOR in Focus 9/5/2007 10:19 AM EDT Its continued rise indicates that credit markets aren't fully functional.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of the revised investment classic, The Money Market,
first published in 1978 by Marcia Stigum, and The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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