Jobless claims stayed higher than expected for a second week, falling only
4,000 to 339,000 vs. expectations for a decline to 320,000. The increase keeps
the claims figure well above its 1-year average of 319,000, a level that would
be a concern if it continued.
Whether the trend continues is an open
question, but many probably still expect that it won't. In last week's
release, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that it had difficulty
adjusting for the timing of spring recesses, which they said should be
resolved in upcoming weeks.
There was a similar jump in claims in the month of February and there were
various explanations for the increase. There evolved a sense of
believability about the increase when claims moved back down and the monthly
payroll figures failed to validate the increase.
This recent episode could
lull investors into a sense of complacency if they ignore the many reasons
thought up in February, particularly any housing-related increases. Hence,
if claims stay high it could well indicate a change in employment conditions
that many would miss.
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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Tony Crescenzi Blog U.K. Bonds Lift U.S. Bonds 4/18/2007 12:44 PM EDT The realization that future rate hikes are fully priced in is fueling the U.K. rally.
Tony Crescenzi Blog Confidence Index Up 4/18/2007 11:49 AM EDT But the rise is its lowest level vs. the average of the past year.
Tony Crescenzi Blog Petro Inventories Fall 4/18/2007 10:40 AM EDT Gas inventories fell 2.7 million barrels vs. expectations of 2 million barrels.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of the revised investment classic, The Money Market,
first published in 1978 by Marcia Stigum, and The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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