Mortgage applications for home purchases fell in the week ended March 30, but they fell back to a level that suggests the housing market is holding up better than some have feared.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly index fell to 402.90 from 411.10 the previous week, holding very close to the one-year average of 404.61. At 409.7, the four-week moving average held above the one-year average for a third consecutive week.
The most that the bear camp can say about these numbers is that the housing market is stagnant. Given that recent fears have gone well beyond stagnation, leaning toward deepening erosion, the bull camp gets the upper hand with these latest data.
Home sales are moving sideways, and most can agree that the rate of deterioration has slowed. Whether it deteriorates further is another question, but the answer is: not yet.
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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Tony Crescenzi Blog A Consumer Measure Slips 4/4/2007 11:36 AM EDT If the downtrend in the ABC News survey continues, it could forecast slippage in consumer spending.
Tony Crescenzi Blog ISM Lacks Support 4/4/2007 10:53 AM EDT This is a trend worth watching, given the importance of the service sector.
Tony Crescenzi Blog ECB Gold Holdings Rise 4/4/2007 9:38 AM EDT The precious metal has spiked higher.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of the revised investment classic, The Money Market,
first published in 1978 by Marcia Stigum, and The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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