Interesting and important will be Thursday's data on jobless claims. Because of the resilience seen in Friday's jobs report, there is a theory now that the recent 16-month high posted for jobless claims was mostly due to harsh weather conditions. If the theory is to hold water, jobless claims must continue their downward movement closer to the six-month average of 319,000 (the four-week moving average is now 339,000). Also important on Thursday will be the release of the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey, which will give further insight into whether the inventory correction from last quarter has run its course.
On Friday, the University of Michigan will release the preliminary results of its March consumer sentiment survey, which will shed further insight into whether consumers have been rattled by the stock market's recent decline, the rise in gasoline prices and continued bad press on the housing market.
In the current environment, it pays to track the Federal Reserve's weekly data on bank credit (every Friday at 4:15 p.m.), which is a useful gauge of credit conditions. Bank credit has been expanding at a pace fast enough to suggest that there has been no spillover from the subprime sector into other areas of banking.
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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Tony Crescenzi Blog Even the Fed Was Hiring in February 3/9/2007 11:41 AM EST Odds of a Fed rate cut have fallen sharply after today's strong jobs report.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of the revised investment classic, The Money Market,
first published in 1978 by Marcia Stigum, and The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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