Also on Wednesday will be the release of the Chicago Purchasing Managers index, which will help to settle the score on what has been mixed news so far on factory activity for the past few weeks.
On Thursday, jobless claims will be in focus because, over the past two weeks, claims have been at their worst levels in 16 months. Is it housing? The data will help answer the question. Also scheduled are data on personal income and spending, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the deflator for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The deflator is expected to be up 0.2%, which would put the year-over-year gain at 2.3%, a few tenths above the Fed's target zone. The 0.3% core CPI for January raises the importance of this figure.
At 10 a.m. ET Thursday will be the release of the ISM index; it's expected to move back to 50.0 from 49.3 in January, which was the second sub-50 reading in three months. The jury is still out on whether factory activity will rebound after a sharp inventory correction in the fourth quarter. If not, it will hint at weakening business confidence because inventories are now lean enough to justify a rebound in spending. Construction spending is also due, which will put the focus back on housing again. Car sales will round it up throughout the day. A weak 16.2 million pace is expected.
But before you start your week, tune in to NBC Sunday morning for "The Wall Street Journal Report" with Maria Bartiromo, where I'll be discussing the housing market.
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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Tony Crescenzi Blog Treasuries at Key Level 2/23/2007 1:56 PM EST A yield break of 4.66% on the 10-year would begin to invalidate the selloff.
Tony Crescenzi Blog Inflation Expectations Up 2/23/2007 11:08 AM EST The yield spread between 10-year TIPS and 10-yearTreasuries has widened.
Tony Crescenzi Blog Money Supply Gaining 2/23/2007 10:03 AM EST It's growing quickly enough to fuel growth, but it might be moving too fast, spurring inflation.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of the revised investment classic, The Money Market,
first published in 1978 by Marcia Stigum, and The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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