The New York Fed's Empire manufacturing survey was weaker than expected,
falling to 9.1 from 22.2 in December to its lowest level since May 2005.
The Empire survey has been very strong in recent months, especially compared
to other manufacturing-related data. The markets paid far more attention to
these other data, so if these other data firm, today's data will be ignored.
Investors are already of the mindset that factory activity will strengthen
in the months ahead owing to a pickup in economic growth and waning drags
from the housing and automobile sectors. Today's data raises the importance
of Thursday's Philadelphia Fed survey, which, if it rebounds from recent
weakness, will nullify the importance of today's report by supporting the
rebound thesis.
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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Tony Crescenzi Blog Sense of Pickup Bigger Than Data Ahead 1/12/2007 3:15 PM EST Traders may ignore negative reports from specific sectors in hopes of continuing the overall rally.
Tony Crescenzi Blog Oil Drop Affects Consumer Consumption 1/12/2007 1:51 PM EST The dip in fuel costs could bring growth in personal spending back to previous levels.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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