The market is priced for just 2% odds of a cut at the Jan. 31 FOMC
meeting, down from 4% yesterday. The market is priced for 8% odds of a cut
at the March 21 FOMC meeting, down from 14% yesterday. The market is
priced for 30% odds of a cut at the May 9 FOMC meeting, down from about
45% yesterday. For the June 28 FOMC meeting, the market is priced for 58%
odds of a cut, down from 86% yesterday.
For all of 2007, the market is priced for 100% odds of a single quarter-point cut and for roughly 80% odds of a second, down from 100% yesterday.
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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Tony Crescenzi Blog Natural Gas Draws Less Than Expected 1/5/2007 11:45 AM EST Here are some details from the weekly data release on natural gas inventories.
Tony Crescenzi Blog Two Kinds of Bond Selloffs 1/5/2007 10:27 AM EST This one indicates no interest rate hike is in sight.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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