On Intrade.com, a Web site that facilitates betting on the outcome of many
different types of events, bettors are placing high odds of a handover to Democratic leadership in the House of Representatives, but odds are put low for a handover in the Senate.
With 100,676 contracts traded, bettors are placing 83% odds that the Democrats will take control of the House. The current reading is the highest reading in the history of the contract. Just a week ago, the odds were put at about 65%, and a month ago the odds were briefly under 50%, where odds had been for a number of months.
As for the Senate, with 40,482 contracts traded, bettors are placing 30% odds of that the Democrats will take control, about the same as a week ago but down from peak odds of 43% in October.
Democrats need 15 seats to take control of the House. Bettors on Intrade.com are placing 65% odds that the Democrats will pick up at least 20 seats, and about 40% odds they will pick up at least 25 seats.
What percentage odds do you put on the election?
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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