In light of the behavior of commodity prices, equities, and the emerging markets, it's a good time to look and see if there have been any changes in rate-hike odds. Rate-hike odds are a little lower, but not much.
The market is priced for 56% odds of a hike at the June 29 FOMC meeting, down from 62% on Friday. The market is priced for 96% odds of a hike at the Aug. 8 FOMC meeting (assuming no hike in June), down from 100% on Friday. The market is priced for 100% odds of a hike at the Sept. 20 FOMC meeting (same as Friday) and for 0% odds of a second hike (from today), down from about 10% at least week's peak.
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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Tony Crescenzi Blog What Vanadium Tells Us 5/22/2006 11:06 AM EDT The trading in this element vs. futures-based commodities helps track speculative excesses.
Tony Crescenzi Blog Cracks in Liquidity Trade 5/22/2006 9:34 AM EDT Investors need to watch this indicator from the bond market.
Tony Crescenzi Blog What Matters Next Week 5/19/2006 2:00 PM EDT We may see a sea change in the response to data; watch how the markets treat inflation news.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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