This means that even if consumer spending were unchanged in January, February and March, consumer spending still would be reported higher, by 3.7%. Any gains seen during those months (likely if one looks closely at Wal-Mart's (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take) figures, for example) will boost spending further.
This supports the early forecasts for GDP to rebound to a pace of more than 4.0% in the current quarter. If business spending rebounds (likely) and government spending increases along with its record quarterly borrowing (also likely), it would be reasonable to estimate a gain of 5.0%.
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Tony Crescenzi Blog Watch the Spending 1/30/2006 9:18 AM EST The spending data show potential impact on GDP.
Tony Crescenzi Blog Record Longs in Stocks and Bonds 1/27/2006 4:32 PM EST The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are surprising.
Tony Crescenzi Blog Latest Rate Hike Odds 1/27/2006 2:23 PM EST The market is priced for 100% odds of a 4.75% fed-funds rate at the May 3. FOMC meeting.
Tony Crescenzi is the chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, and advises many of the nation's top institutional investors on issues related to the bond market, the economy and other macro-related issues. At the request of the Federal Reserve, Crescenzi is a regular participant in the board's Livingston Survey of economic forecasters. He is also the author of The Strategic Bond Investor. At the time of publication, Crescenzi or Miller Tabak had no positions in the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Crescenzi also is the founder of Bondtalk.com, a popular Web site covering the bond market and the economy. Crescenzi appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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