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RealMoney.com: Software
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Hope That SAP Is Copying Oracle
Page 2

Doing It Right With PeopleSoft

 


As an example, consider Oracle's first large acquisition -- that of PeopleSoft in January 2005 for $11.1 billion in cash. Before the acquisition, Oracle held more than $9.5 billion in cash and marketable securities on its balance sheet, and had virtually no debt. The company used this cash and a $7 billion bridge loan to complete the acquisition. By the end of its fiscal year in May 2005, it had reduced the loan value to $2.6 billion while still maintaining nearly $5 billion in cash and marketable securities, and actually reducing its share count.

By May 2006, the company had made another $4 billion worth of acquisitions (net of the cash held by the acquired companies) and increased its cash and marketable securities to $7.5 billion, while restructuring its debt load to $5.7 billion in long-term debt. Even though the debt was $3 billion more than the prior year, most of that was offset by the increase in cash -- meaning that the $4 billion in acquisitions was made possible almost entirely through cash flow from operations.

Inside the Numbers

Speaking of cash flow, in the year ended May 2007, Oracle generated $5.5 billion of it from operating activities, and spent only $320 million of it on capital expenditures. That turns out to be a free-cash-flow yield of 4.5% from the existing businesses. Most of that continues to be invested in new acquisitions for new growth opportunities. The free cash flow has increased 55% since fiscal year 2005.

Meanwhile, SAP generated approximately $2 billion in free cash flow last year, giving it a 3% free-cash-flow yield. Its acquisition avoidance has left the free cash flow essentially unchanged over the last three years (though arguably the change in the euro/dollar exchange rate is providing growth).

A higher yield and growing free cash flow compared with a lower, flat one is not much of a choice in my book.

If any doubt remains over which strategy is working better, one need only turn to a price chart. Since Oracle closed the PeopleSoft acquisition in January 2005, its shares are up 70% (mostly driven by rising cash flow), compared to just more than 30% for SAP over the same time. To me, it seems like that is exactly the type of "challenge" SAP would want to adopt.






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At the time of publication, Trent had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although positions may change at any time.

William A. Trent, CFA, is a freelance equity analyst based in the New York metro area. He has been an equity analyst since 1996 and is co-author of Understanding and Evaluating Prospectuses, Offering Documents, and Proxy Statements. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Trent appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.




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