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RealMoney.com: Retail
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GPS Preview: Overall Sales Trends Are Improving

By Scott Rothbort
RealMoney Silver Contributor

11/19/2009 9:16 AM EST
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Gap (GPS) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2009 results and conduct its quarterly conference call after the market closes today.

 
The company is expected to earn 44 cents per share on net sales of $3.57 billion. In the prior year's quarter, Gap earned 35 cents on net sales of $3.56 billion.

Same-store sales for Gap by month during the quarter were as follows:

  • October increased 4% in the aggregate -- down 6% at Gap North America, up 5% at Banana Republic North America, up 14% at Old Navy North America and down 4% at international stores
  • September declined 1% in the aggregate -- down 8% at Gap North America, down 12% at Banana Republic North America, up 13% at Old Navy North America and down 4% at international stores.
  • August declined 3% in the aggregate -- down 7% at Gap North America, down 8% at Banana Republic North America, up 4% at Old Navy North America and down 12% at international stores.
As we can conclude from the above data, sales trends improved sequentially from month to month during the quarter. Based on that, expectations for EPS were recently increased by management. Sales at Old Navy remain strong, while those at Banana Republic continue to be volatile. Gap North America remains weak. I believe that the key to the quarter will be inventory levels, markdowns and margins.







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At the time of publication, Rothbort had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although positions can change at any time.

Scott Rothbort has over 25 years of experience in the financial services industry. He is the Founder and President of LakeView Asset Management, a registered investment advisor specializing in customized separate account management for high net worth individuals. In addition, he is the founder of TheFinanceProfessor.com, an educational social networking site; and, publisher of The LakeView Restaurant & Food Chain Report. Rothbort is also a Term Professor of Finance at Seton Hall University's Stillman School of Business, where he teaches courses in finance and economics. He is the Chief Market Strategist for The Stillman School of Business and the co-supervisor of the Center for Securities Trading and Analysis.

Mr. Rothbort is a regular contributor to TheStreet.com's RealMoney Silver website and has frequently appeared as a professional guest on Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg Television, Fox Business Network, CNBC Television, TheStreet.com TV and local television. As an expert in the field of derivatives and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), he frequently speaks at industry conferences. He is an ETF advisory board member for the Information Management Network, a global organizer of institutional finance and investment conferences. In addition, he is widely quoted in interviews in the printed press and on the internet.

Mr. Rothbort founded LakeView Asset Management in 2002. Prior to that, since 1991, he worked at Merrill Lynch, where he held a wide variety of senior-level management positions, including Business Director for the Global Equity Derivative Department, Global Director for Equity Swaps Trading and Risk Management, and Director for secured funding and collateral management for the Global Capital Markets Group and Corporate Treasury. Prior to working at Merrill Lynch, within the financial services industry, he worked for County Nat West Securities and Morgan Stanley, where he had international assignments in Tokyo, Hong Kong and London. He began his career working at Price Waterhouse from 1982 to 1984.

Mr. Rothbort received an M.B.A., majoring in Finance and International Business from the Stern School of Business, New York University, in 1992, and a B.Sc. in Economics, majoring in Accounting, from the Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania, in 1982. He is also a graduate of the prestigious Stuyvesant High School in New York City. Mr. Rothbort is married to Layni Horowitz Rothbort, a real estate attorney, and together they have five children.



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