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RealMoney.com: Retail
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GIS Surprises to the Upside, Raises Guidance

By Scott Rothbort
RealMoney Contributor

12/17/2008 3:32 PM EST
Click here for more stories by Scott Rothbort
 
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For Rothbort's preview heading into the General Mills conference call, please click here.

 
General Mills (GIS - commentary - Cramer's Take) managed to deliver a better-than-expected quarter, once you factor out the hedging mark-to-markets and one-time items. While the stock appeared to be higher in the pre-market, I think that many investors got wise to the company's hedging mistakes, and it then traded lower. As I wrapped up the call, General Mills was up a few cents.

Apparently, the company got caught with pricey hedges at the top of the commodity markets. The mark-to-market on the hedges will come back to bite the company in the Poppin' Fresh Doughboy as soon as they have to realize it into the cost of production in the second half. Clearly, General Mills was not able to take advantage of falling commodity costs and got smacked with the impact of the strengthening dollar.

Still, the company had a solid quarter in a tough environment and pleasantly raised guidance for the rest of the year. The General Mills news seems to have had a halo effect on Ralcorp (RAH - commentary - Cramer's Take), which is rallying over 2% today. While General Mills is a quality company, I will stick to Ralcorp.

General Mills reported better-than-expected EPS of $1.14 on revenue of $4.01 billion. Included in this year's results was a mark-to-market valuation adjustment of negative 49 cents, partially offset by a 22-cent gain on the sale of Pop Secret. Excluding those items, the compnay earned $1.36 per share. In the year-ago quarter, General Mills earned $1.11 per share, including a 3-cent mark-to-market gain on commodity positions.

The 8% net sales growth was generated from the following components:

  • volume was up 2%;
  • price realization and product mix was up 8%; and
  • foreign exchange was down 2%.
U.S. sales rose 10%, and international sales rose 2% in U.S. dollars and 10% in constant currency terms. Bakery and food services sales rose 6%. Sales for U.S. retail, bakeries and food services grew by 11%.

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At the time of publication, Rothbort was long Ralcorp, although positions can change at any time.

Scott Rothbort has over 20 years of experience in the financial services industry. In 2002, Rothbort founded LakeView Asset Management, LLC, a registered investment advisor based in Millburn, N.J., which offers customized individually managed separate accounts, including proprietary long/short strategies to its high net worth clientele. He also is the founder and manager of the social networking educational Web site TheFinanceProfessor.com.

Immediately prior to that, Rothbort worked at Merrill Lynch for 10 years, where he was instrumental in building the global equity derivative business and managed the global equity swap business from its inception. Rothbort previously held international assignments in Tokyo, Hong Kong and London while working for Morgan Stanley and County NatWest Securities.

Rothbort holds an MBA in finance and international business from the Stern School of Business of New York University and a BS in economics and accounting from the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania. He is a Term Professor of Finance and the Chief Market Strategist for the Stillman School of Business of Seton Hall University.

For more information about Scott Rothbort and LakeView Asset Management, LLC, visit the company's Web site at www.lakeviewasset.com. Scott appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.



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