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RealMoney.com: Metals
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Base Metals Could Be Topping

By Howard Simons
RealMoney.com Contributor

11/6/2007 9:48 AM EST
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Most writers would agree you have to begin a column on base metals by referring to the recent earnings news out of Chevron (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Exxon Mobil (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take). These integrated oil giants came under pressure from declining refining margins. While none of this is likely to elicit much sympathy, along with similar bad news out of oil-service giant Schlumberger (SLB - commentary - Cramer's Take), it reminds oil industry veterans of how the whole picture started to come unglued in 1981.

 


All resource industries are cyclical by their very nature. The commodity price boom of recent years originated in the commodity price busts of the late 1980s and 1990s, which led to years of underinvestment in productive capacity. It got a kick from the demand side when the Federal Reserve's rate cuts of 2001-2003 stimulated consumption, as intended, but with the production being shifted outside of the U.S. to lower-cost Asian producers like China that needed to build infrastructure. And while many persist in linking commodity prices to currencies, this connection is surprisingly weak, as I demonstrated in July and will return to below.

Metals and Mining Stocks

First, the last few years have been very rewarding for holders of metals and mining stocks. Not only have these issues risen on the back of higher commodity prices, the industry has undergone a wave of consolidation in response to the ever-higher capital costs of developing new sources of supply. And while it may seem that these stocks -- measured here by the S&P 1500's diversified metals and mining group, which includes Amcol International (ACO - commentary - Cramer's Take), Brush Engineered Materials (BW - commentary - Cramer's Take), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX - commentary - Cramer's Take), RTI International (RTI - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Titanium Metals (TIE - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- have outperformed the broad market for a long time, the bulk of their outperformance has been a recent affair. They were underperformers for a long time, and have surged only in the past year even as base metal prices have failed to make new highs, also discussed below.


Nothing Has Been Finer Than To Be a Copper Miner ...
For the Past Year, at Least
Click here for larger image.
Source: Bloomberg

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Howard L. Simons is president of Simons Research, a strategist for Bianco Research, a trading consultant and the author of The Dynamic Option Selection System. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities. While Simons cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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