Sluggish Growth, but Growth Nonetheless

Weekly unemployment claims were up 35,000 to 380,000. The four-week moving average was down to 364,000, well below the 400,000 that usually signals no growth in the economy.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) survey was in line with expectations at 48.6. Below 50 indicates contraction (above 50 is expansion), but it needs to get to the low 40s to indicate recession.

All the news the past few days shows a sluggish economy, not growing fast enough to create jobs, but not (yet) in recession.

The Fed's message yesterday could have been clearer, but the market seems to be figuring out that the policymakers are on hold for now. Oil is off a bit, as is gold, and the dollar is trading up a tad.

I had the wrong mark for the dollar in yesterday's note. I quoted the yen, and I like to follow the dollar vs. euro trade. Some of you sharp-eyed readers picked it up (I'm glad some of you read this). Now, I would expect David Kotok to be on top of it (and he was), but so was Lola Jane. At age 19 months, she truly is a remarkable granddaughter!

Tomorrow is the big Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs number. Stay tuned.

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Vincent Farrell Jr. is a principal of Scotsman Capital Management. Prior to joining Scotsman in April 2005, Farrell was chairman of Victory Capital Management of Cleveland and chairman of Victory SBSF Capital Management in New York. He was a founding partner of Spears Benzak Salomon & Farrell, which was acquired by KeyCorp in 1995. Vince held a variety of positions in his 23 years at SBSF, including chief investment officer, and he served as the portfolio manager on a number of the firm's largest client relationships. He is a regular guest on CNBC as well as other national print and broadcast media.

Prior to joining SBSF, Vince spent nine years at Smith Barney as a vice president, sales.

Vince graduated from Princeton University in 1969 and received his MBA from the Iona College Graduate School of Business in 1972.