The rally in the market today is nice to see. Lehman (LEH - commentary - Cramer's Take) raised a slug of capital, and UBS (UBS - commentary - Cramer's Take) and DeutscheBank (DB - commentary - Cramer's Take) owned up to more CDO losses, but the market figures that the worst is priced in. (I think. It could be a rally in a bear market, but we keep moving further away from the market lows of last January.)
Gold is down a lot, oil off a bit and the dollar is rallying. All of these are needed for the market to continue upward, and financial stocks, having a wonderful day, need to continue their recovery. If financial stocks falter, I believe the market will too. But, as I have said before, I believe we saw the lows for this cycle at the end of January when the Dow hit 11,600 intraday (12,600 plus right now), and the S&P touched 1270 (1360 plus last trade). So, the averages are up 7%-8% from their intraday lows, and life doesn't look so terrible.
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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Market Commentary Looking for Answers at UBS 4/1/2008 12:51 PM EDT The repricing of securities raises more questions than it answers.
Market Commentary Looking at Several Positive Emerging Trends 4/1/2008 8:05 AM EDT There's plenty of liquidity sloshing around, and non-oil earnings estimates are surprisingly on the rise recently.
Market Commentary Faint Signs of Housing Improvement 3/31/2008 9:22 AM EDT Some of the data coming in suggest that a bottom in housing is possible.
Vincent Farrell Jr. is a principal of Scotsman Capital Management. Prior to joining Scotsman in April 2005, Farrell was chairman of Victory Capital Management of Cleveland and chairman of Victory SBSF Capital Management in New York. He was a founding partner of Spears Benzak Salomon & Farrell, which was acquired by KeyCorp in 1995. Vince held a variety of positions in his 23 years at SBSF, including chief investment officer, and he served as the portfolio manager on a number of the firm's largest client relationships. He is a regular guest on CNBC as well as other national print and broadcast media.
Prior to joining SBSF, Vince spent nine years at Smith Barney as a vice president, sales.
Vince graduated from Princeton University in 1969 and received his MBA from the Iona College Graduate School of Business in 1972.
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