Tech Downgrades Will Miss the Mark

Slashing National Semi (NSM - commentary - Cramer's Take) ratings! Trashing IBM (IBM - commentary - Cramer's Take)! Intel's (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) a yawner, sell now! Getting off that Ciena (CIEN - commentary - Cramer's Take) horse!

Oh, please.

When I look at these downgrades today on valuation, I ask, "Where were these downgraders in 1999-2001, when the valuations were truly impossible?" If you have a first quarter with any strength, you are going to have to put these stocks back on the recommended list at what will turn out to be higher prices.

It drives me crazy to see so much handwringing about a tech industry that truly is enjoying incredible growth related to laptops, televisions, cell phones, DVD players, digital video recorders and just about everything else with a battery or a plug. It's almost as if the whole complex of analysts feels New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer breathing down its neck. May I remind you that my friend and former investor, Spitzer, wasn't against being bullish; he was against being bullish when you really were bearish in order to procure banking.

You don't have to downgrade just to preserve your reputation. Is IBM really stretching the bounds of its valuations at 16 times earnings? Is Ciena at $3 more expensive that when it was at $140? Is National Semi really undeserving of a 20 multiple after all it has done to clean itself up and right-size its businesses?

I don't expect these stocks to ramp, but I don't expect them to wilt. I believe they will gently move higher over the rest of the year, but that they can ramp again in the first quarter if it's as strong as I think it will be. Then you can sell them in February.

How's that for a plan?

Random musings: The anti-Sears (SHLD - commentary - Cramer's Take) cabal is basing a lot of its work on some very critical reports about cash flow that I think don't reflect planned sales that haven't closed and planned transactions that could put cash back into the enterprise. No one, bull or bear, is thinking that sales could ever be that good. But what happens if they get better?

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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Intel and Sears Holdings.

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for ActionAlertsPLUS. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. ET weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here.