We Need a Washout

It feels easier to be a bear at this moment, one of the easiest times since the bottom was reached in March. But that in itself is worth considering, because anytime it has been easy to be a bear, the bears surface, buy a lot of puts, make many negative bets and voila -- you get a reversal.

The elements of this reversal are two-pronged: We are no longer overbought, and the end-of-the-month mark-up is really a phenomenon of three days before the end of the month.

Meaning, today.

What we need of course, as we always do, is a washout of hope, a sense that it is once again a doomed market, not doomed to go to 9500 but doomed to go to 8500.

I personally think that 9500 is hardly doom, and I don't even know if we will go down that far. But it sure would help if we were to get hammered at the opening. That's the stuff of turnarounds that make a turn work.

That's what I am looking for, and to spot it ahead watch Google (GOOG - commentary - Trade Now), Amazon (AMZN - commentary - Trade Now), 3M (MMM - commentary - Trade Now) and Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Trade Now), the strongest of the strong, at least in turns of business. I say business only because few stocks are weaker than Goldman Sachs. Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Trade Now) would be a good tell, but that's just a free fire zone for the shorts as if it were last year at this time.

In short, let the bears on this tape. Let them take it where they want it. Don't buy up. If perchance the market actually does rally here without going down first, be grateful but don't buy.

It isn't worth it. They are in control until they have grown so powerful that they support the market with their own buying.

Random musings: Dan Dicker's take on the refiners being the place to be will be borne out, I believe. BP (BP - commentary - Trade Now) has those kinds of operations, as does Marathon (MRO - commentary - Trade Now), which I have been buying for Action Alerts PLUS.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, BP and Marathon Oil.

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