Retail's High End vs. Low End

Are we back to the old days of high end vs. low end in retail? That's what I think about when I look at the resurrection of Coach (COH - commentary - Trade Now), Tiffany (TIF - commentary - Trade Now), Williams-Sonoma (WSM - commentary - Trade Now) and Nordstrom (JWN - commentary - Trade Now).

I regard these four as the best test of spending by the rich, and judging by their performance in the last couple of months, the rich are spending again. These stocks have been unremitting in their rallying, and they show no signs of stopping, and the Nordstrom ramp today continues the trend. Boy, is that stock up too high, in my opinion. Nevertheless, it doesn't matter. The facts bear out the run.

But they are the only ones that have showed any life. Last week we saw a rollover in Family Dollar (FDO - commentary - Trade Now) as well as stallings in Big Lots (BIG - commentary - Trade Now), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY - commentary - Trade Now), TJX (TJX - commentary - Trade Now) and Ross Stores (ROST - commentary - Trade Now). All four of those stocks look like they are rolling over and seem ripe for the shorting. The lowest end simply doesn't act well at all.

Then there's the middle ground. Kohl's (KSS - commentary - Trade Now) and J.C. Penney (JCP - commentary - Trade Now) have acted well, the former being the strongest one in the group for a long time, and the latter seemingly playing catch-up. Macy's (M - commentary - Trade Now) seems to hang in; it could go either way.

But Target (TGT - commentary - Trade Now)? The worst in show. No lift, no life. And in many ways that's the tale of this tape.

As we go into retail sales hell this week, I think we will see nothing good from any of the weaker ones but a continuation of strength from the rich who have gotten their fitting and are spending again.

(Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Trade Now) is the never-moving anomaly, can't get out of its way. Costco (COST - commentary - Trade Now) has said good things and could reignite on any consistency with the last words said when it reports this week. I discount either as a tell. Home Depot (HD - commentary - Trade Now) and (LOW - commentary - Trade Now) are different battlegrounds, with HD slowly improving and Lowe's slowly going nowhere. They are housing plays and need to be watched, like Black & Decker (BDK - commentary - Trade Now), Masco (MAS - commentary - Trade Now) and Fortune Brands (FO - commentary - Trade Now), but they've been holding in because California, at least in the case of HD, has turned, and California's a huge part of HD.)

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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Home Depot and Pepsi. Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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