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The State of the Market -- Part II

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist

9/8/2009 10:30 AM EDT
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This is the second of a four-part piece about the market we find ourselves in as we begin to wind down 2009. Be sure to read the first part.

 
Group 2: Commercial real estate plays. If there were one particular Achilles' heel of the bulls (amid a centipede-like group of Achilles' heels), it's commercial real estate. This issue is the stuff of endless articles and discussions, from the preternaturally-given-to-thermonuclear-war-against-stocks Gretchen Morgenson to our own jeremiad sounders -- too numerous to mention -- on RealMoney. So I struggle with what to make of the action in the real estate investment trusts if things are going so awry in offices, malls and apartments, the troika of pain that is supposed to cause the next wave of collapsing banks.

The riptide should be carrying the following in its undertow: Avalon Bay (AVB - commentary - Trade Now), Equity Residential (EQR - commentary - Trade Now) and UDR (UDR - commentary - Trade Now) in apartments; Simon Properties (SPG - commentary - Trade Now), Federal Reality (FRT - commentary - Trade Now) and Developers Diversified (DDR - commentary - Trade Now) in malls; Boston Properties (BXP - commentary - Trade Now), Vornado (VNO - commentary - Trade Now) and Brandywine (BDN - commentary - Trade Now) in office properties; as well as real estate broker CB Richard Ellis (CBG - commentary - Trade Now). A look at each of the companies' Web sites, though, paints a thoroughly positive picture.

It is true that the real estate industry is pretty unrestrained when it comes to hype, but even the worst players in the worst markets -- like DDR and EQR with huge exposure to California -- seem to be very filled with tenants, and the best (Simon and Federal Realty) are doing quite well. Federal Realty, a serial dividend raiser led by Don Wood, just boosted its dividend.

Federal Realty (FRT)
chart

If you participated in Brandywine or Boston Properties' secondaries you had some pretty good percentage hits. CB Richard Ellis recently gave an interview to The New York Times talking about how business has started to turn up -- I know, I know, hype factor, but let's give them their due, as they have been through the wars and presented plenty of evidence of winning.

CB Richard Ellis (CBG)
chart

Vornado's doing a second offering of a new company, arguably capping its upside, and there's talk now and then of trouble at the firm, but if there is so much trouble, what are they looking at new opportunities for?

Vornado (VNO)
chart

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Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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