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RealMoney.com: Jim Cramer Blog
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'Due' for a Pullback ... But So What?

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist

5/11/2009 7:10 AM EDT
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The too-far-too-fast police are out in full force today. Commodities have moved up too far too fast considering economic activity. Banks have moved up too much vs. nonperforming loans. Houses have moved up too fast considering foreclosures. And most important, stocks have moved up too fast vs. the fundamentals.

All of these, every one of these, are right. The problem is that they have been right for months. They were right when Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) went from $3 to $6. They were right when BAC went from $6 to $9. And they were right again when, in a slew of upgrades, BAC went to $14.

They were right about the Nasdaq, which was up 12% at one point even though all we had were a handful of semiconductor companies doing well, and those did not include Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take). They were right when oil went to $40 and $45 and $50 and Transocean (RIG - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Schlumberger (SLB - commentary - Cramer's Take) went up 25 points.

That's what makes this moment difficult. Everything that has happened has been done on the backs of sentiment and some not-so-bad employment claims plus some data out of the retailers that showed April was strong.

Both the bulls and the bears know it has gone too far.

So when we see the market looking like it is going to go down big and we know that nothing's really changed enough to bring us up to this level and we are still radically overbought, the tendency is, again, to say goodbye to this market.

And I am saying, wait a second, it is expiration week. You usually catch a down day related to that, if oil comes -- something that is blamed for the morning's weakness -- that's good because that's the market's Achilles' heel (as we know from the last go-round); just let it play out and if the stocks retreat again intraday, or if they come down 5% to 8% off their highs, you still have to buy.

The arguments against only really work if the unemployment claims spike high this Thursday or gasoline spikes because of oil.

Are we due for a pullback? Heck, we've been due for five straight weeks now, about the number of weeks people have been saying this market's been done for.

"Due" doesn't cut it.

Look for buys, not sells.

We are not done.

Random musings: I hope you have signed our petition if you support reinstating the uptick rule. If I could boil the arguments against it down to one sentence it would be: "We should be allowed to short all we want without upticks because we can short already and because shorting is every bit as good for the market as being long." All mechanical, and circular reasoning. We need the rule to slow down the panic and to stop aiding the manipulators. That's from the '30s. The emotions haven't changed and the reasons for the rule are still very much with us unless they repealed fear and greed.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.


Know what you own: Cramer mentions Intel. Other companies in the semiconductor industry include AMD (AMD - commentary - Cramer's Take), Texas Instruments (TXN - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Nvidia (NVDA - commentary - Cramer's Take).

RealMoney Barometer Poll
1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading?
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2 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move up in the coming week?
3 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move down in the coming week?


View the results without voting





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Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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