How Guesswork Becomes Gospel

When I was a sportswriter back in college, we decided to do specials, one-page EXTRAs to be given out at the end of football games while people walked out of the stadium.

They were a pain to do because you would have to write from the bottom up, detailing the first, second and third quarters, leaving the top blank.

Because we only had about five minutes to print the issue in time before the crowds dispersed -- we tried to nail them crossing the Charles -- I always wrote two tops, something like: "The Crimson triumphed, ___ to ___, because of a great passing game, with ___ to ___ good for ___ points." But if the other team, say Yale, won, I would have it all set: "The Elis used a brutal defense, shutting down the Harvard passing game with ___ to ___ being held to ___ scores."

That's this market. We wait until the last five minutes, we slap a gratuitous reason for the victory/defeat, and we run it like it is gospel.

There's one big difference: I landed Budweiser as a sponsor, and the Crimson made a fortune. This market? Everybody loses.

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